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I’m not one to chase my bets, so I’ll go consistent.

I’ll take Lyoto Machida -500 over Mauricio “Shogun” Rua. This is a dangerous bet because for one, it’s difficult to fork out $500 to win $100, especially against a fighter that actually has a chance. I’ll take this bet though since Lyoto’s never been hurt, ever, and I can see this fight going like Lyoto’s fight against Thiago Silva.

I’ll also go with Yushin Okami -260 over Chael Sonnen. I don’t think Sonnen’s really that good and Okami’s really strong. I can see Okami just being on top of him the entire fight.

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BJ -275. I’ll just play 1 unit here because Kenny does have some chance here. He beat Joe Stevenson faster than BJ did. BJ will win it. I don’t think Florian can beat Penn standing or on the ground.

-Anderson Silva vs. Forrest Griffin

Silva -365. Just 1 unit here too. Damn, those are really bad odds, but I think Silva is a really bad fight for Griffin. Silva will take him out standing.

-Ricardo Almeida vs. Kendall Grove

Almeida -150. I’ll take 1 unit here too. They both have submission skills, but Almeida has super submission skills.

-Alessio Sakara (13-7) vs. Thales Leites (14-2)

Thales Leites -500. I’ll take 1 unit here too. Alessio will get submitted. Leites didn’t get KO’d by Silva. He’s not getting KO’d by Sakara

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UFC 97: APRIL 18, 2009
venue: Bell Centre in Montreal, Canada

Main Card Bouts:
-Anderson Silva (23-4; #1 Middleweight in the World)* vs. Thales Leites (14-1)

Anderson Silva. Thales Leites hasn’t beaten anyone significant enough for me to think that he can beat Silva and Silva has dominated his weight class. I don’t think he’s stoppable at this point. I really wonder how he was beat so many times in Japan!

-Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (17-3; #5 Light Heavyweight in the World)* vs. Chuck Liddell (21-6; #6 Light Heavyweight in the World)*

This will be an interesting one. Rua isn’t top 10 in a lot of people’s lists, but I think he ought to be. That said however, I’m not sure he can take a punch from Chucky. I think that Shogun can fight an intelligent fight and win, but I’d side more with Chuck.

I’m not that interested in the other fights.

-Luiz Cane (9-1) vs. Steve Cantwell (7-1)
-Cheick Kongo (13-4-1) vs. Antoni Hardonk (8-4)
-Brian Stann (6-1) vs. Krzysztof Soszynski (16-8-1)

Preliminary Bouts:
-Nathan Quarry (10-3) vs. Jason MacDonald (21-11)
-Denis Kang (31-11-1) vs. Xavier Fouka-Pokum (20-9)
-David Loiseau (18-8) vs. Ed Herman (16-7)
-T.J. Grant (13-2) vs. Ryo Chonan (15-9)
-Mark Bocek (6-2) vs. David Bielkheden (13-6)
-Matt Wiman (11-5) vs. Sam Stout (13-5-1)
-Eliot Marshall (7-3) vs. Vinny Magalhaes (6-4)

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I’m picking the favorites on this card.

-Quinton Jackson  vs. Keith Jardine – easy – Jackson.

Much like how Wanderlei annihilated Jardine, I think he’ll suffer a similar fate. I don’t see how Jardine could run around and avoid him like he did Liddell. Jackson by KO.

-Gabriel Gonzaga (#8 Heavyweight in the World)* vs. Shane Carwin

Gonzaga. It looks like there are a few people out there picking Carwin, but I think that Gonzaga by submission here. I don’t think Carwin has submission defense yet.

For the rest of the fights, I’m just going to enjoy them with beer. I don’t know the fighters well enough.

-Matt Hammil vs. Mark Munoz
-Gray Maynard vs. Jim Miller
-Matt Brown vs. Pete Sell

Preliminary Bouts:
-Brandon Vera vs. Mike Patt
-Kendall Grove vs. Jason Day
-Tim Boetsch vs. Jason Brilz
-Tamdan McCrory vs. Ryan Madigan
-Aaron Riley vs. Shane Nelson

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Main Card Bouts:
-Georges St. Pierre (#1 Welterweight in the World)* vs. B.J. Penn (#2 Lightweight in the World)*

It will be a great fight! They’ve both improved a lot. I’m leaning towards GSP, but I like Penn too. I can’t give either a big advantage. I’m really looking forward to this fight!

-Lyoto Machida (#4 Light Heavyweight in the World)* vs. Thiago Silva (#10 Light Heavyweight in the World)*

Machida. He’s fought better opposition, but Thiago has some good power.

-Karo Parisyan (#10 Welterweight in the World)* vs. Dong Hyun Kim

If Dong Hyun Kim doesn’t gas, I’m would go with him. Unfortunately, he did badly in his last fight and it was quite disappointing as I thought he had destroyed Matt Brown only for him to win a split decision due to the small gas tank. I’m picking Parisian.

-Nathan Diaz vs. Clay Guida

Guida – he probably won’t get submitted and he’s a workhorse. He just got caught against Huerta – I don’t think Diaz can beat him.

-Stephan Bonnar vs. Jon Jones – who’s Jon Jones?

Preliminary Bouts:
-Jon Fitch (#2 Welterweight in the World)* vs. Akihiro Gono

Fitch. Gono isn’t that good. Fitch took a lot of people to the later rounds. Even GSP couldn’t finish him.

-Jake O’Brien vs. Christian Wellisch

Jake – Christian is a stand up fighter – I expect Jake to LnP the fight.
-Chris Wilson vs. John Howard – don’t know.
-Manny Gamburyan vs. Thiago Tavares

I’ll go with Manny. I don’t see Tavares being able to submit him and he’ll be able to just hold him down.
-Matt Arroyo vs. Dan Cramer – don’t know.

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Pay-Per-View Bouts:
-Fedor Emelianenko  vs. Andrei Arlovski

Fedor – who can bet against him? He’s never lost!
-Josh Barnett vs. Gilbert Yvel

Barnett – I think he’ll take the fight to the ground and win.
-Matt Lindland vs. Vitor Belfort

Lindland by lay and pray – boring fight of the night, I’d say. The Vitor of old hasn’t evolved. He might get a quick KO if he can catch Lindland, but I see Lindland controlling the fight on top.
-Renato “Babalu” Sobral vs. Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou

Sokoudjou – Babalu will probably get KO’d unless he can keep Soko down.

-Chris Horodecki vs. Dan Lauzon – don’t know
-Paul Buentello vs. Kiril “Baby Fedor” Sidelnikov – don’t know

HDNet Bouts:
-Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. Vladimir Matyushenko

Lil’ Nog – Vlady I think is a heavyweight and will have a lot of trouble.
-Jay Hieron vs. Jason High – don’t know
-Mark Hominick vs. L.C. Davis – don’t know
-Antonio Duarte vs. Albert Rios – don’t know
-Brett Cooper vs. Patrick Speight – don’t know

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Main Card Bouts:
-Rich Franklin vs. Dan Henderson

Dan – probably decision Dan – I think he’s got more power and is a better wrestler.
-Mauricio “Shogun” Rua vs. Mark Coleman

Tough call. I’m going with Coleman – bigger, stronger, but dumber. We’ll see. If Coleman doesn’t get submitted, he’ll probably win.
-Denis Kang vs. Alan Belcher

Kang – he’s fought better opposition and Belcher’s lost to almost everyone good.

-Rousimar Palhares vs. Jeremy Horn

Palhares – I think he has better submission skills. As long as Horn’s been in the game, he still gets submitted quite a bit.
-Marcus Davis vs. Chris Lytle

Lytle will be able to take the fight to the ground and win. I don’t think he’ll be stupid enough to stand with Davis, but on the feet, I think Davis is better. Picking Lytle.

Preliminary Bouts:
-Martin Kampmann vs. Alexandre Barros – don’t know

-Ivan Serati vs. Thomasz Drwal – don’t know
-Tom Egan vs. John Hathaway – don’t know
-Nate Mohr vs. Denis Siver – don’t know

-Eric Schafer vs. Antonio Mendes

Picking Eric Schafer – I don’t think Antonio has much ground experience. Schafer’s a tough fight for a lot of people though he hasn’t beat top opposition yet.

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I’ll go with St. Pierre. I don’t think Fitch is really THAT good. St. Pierre has submission and KO power. As good as Fitch is (even KOing Thiago Alves), I don’t think that he’s at the level of GSP.

-Kenny Florian vs. Roger Huerta

Huerta. Ken Flo’s got his elbows and submission skills. I don’t think that he can stick with the Huerta, a bigger, stronger guy who couldn’t be submitted by Alberto Crane, a submission magician and hung with Clay Guida before catching with some good knees and submitting him. I’ve gone against Huerta too many times to think that he won’t win.

-Brock Lesnar vs. Heath Herring

Lesner. I picked Lesner over Mir and would do it again today. He got caught. Herring doesn’t have submission skills. He’s tough, but doesn’t have submission skills. Lesner will take him down with ease. He’ll then just hold and slap him. Lesner by UD.

-Demian Maia vs. Jason MacDonald

???

-Manny Gamburyan vs. Rob Emerson

Gamburyan.

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Don’t get me wrong. I still love our country. As a matter of fact, I have a bet going on with a friend that the US will definitely have both, more gold medals and more medals than China this year at the Beijing Olympics.

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