Archive for the ‘Gambling’ Category

UFC 104 picks …

Tuesday, October 20th, 2009

OK. Maybe I suck. I’m currently -275 after UFC 102 where I was disappointed by Randy Couture.

I’m not one to chase my bets, so I’ll go consistent.

I’ll take Lyoto Machida -500 over Mauricio “Shogun” Rua. This is a dangerous bet because for one, it’s difficult to fork out $500 to win $100, especially against a fighter that actually has a chance. I’ll take this bet though since Lyoto’s never been hurt, ever, and I can see this fight going like Lyoto’s fight against Thiago Silva.

I’ll also go with Yushin Okami -260 over Chael Sonnen. I don’t think Sonnen’s really that good and Okami’s really strong. I can see Okami just being on top of him the entire fight.

UFC 101 picks

Wednesday, August 5th, 2009

-B.J. Penn vs. Kenny Florian

BJ -275. I’ll just play 1 unit here because Kenny does have some chance here. He beat Joe Stevenson faster than BJ did. BJ will win it. I don’t think Florian can beat Penn standing or on the ground.

-Anderson Silva vs. Forrest Griffin

Silva -365. Just 1 unit here too. Damn, those are really bad odds, but I think Silva is a really bad fight for Griffin. Silva will take him out standing.

-Ricardo Almeida vs. Kendall Grove

Almeida -150. I’ll take 1 unit here too. They both have submission skills, but Almeida has super submission skills.

-Alessio Sakara (13-7) vs. Thales Leites (14-2)

Thales Leites -500. I’ll take 1 unit here too. Alessio will get submitted. Leites didn’t get KO’d by Silva. He’s not getting KO’d by Sakara

Is the UFC fixed?

Sunday, July 6th, 2008

I’m starting to think so. I think that a lot of professional sports are fixed though. Here are a few examples of some workings I feel are in the UFC.

1) Randy Couture v. Tito Ortiz … the spanking Randy gave him when Tito had him in a toe hold – was it a tap? It could’ve been! I think that had there been more money on Randy Couture that night (meaning more people bet on Randy Couture), I think that Big John would’ve ruled it a tap.

2) This shouldn’t always involve Tito Ortiz, but here’s another example – Tito Ortiz vs. Lyoto Machida – Machida dominated the fight. He gets caught in a triangle at the end of the fight. Again, I feel that it could’ve been a work. The ref doesn’t need to wait either – he could’ve just called it a tap after seeing Machida struggle a bit. I’m sure Machida wouldn’t have complained.

3) Georges St. Pierre vs. B.J. Penn – BJ just came back and was taking a fight prior to his title shot. GSP was a favorite in that fight. I think that a lot of money was put on BJ. BJ definitely won the fight. He didn’t get the decision. BJ went drinking after the fight. GSP went to the hospital.

4) What the hell … while I’m at it, let’s hit up Tito again. This time, against Rashad Evans. How often do we see points taken away from fighters for holding the fence? Almost never. Why’s Tito special? Do they pay him more for working fights? If you look at the money, you’ll see that Tito’s always paid extraordinarily well compared to the other fighters. Is it because he’s been there the longest? I doubt it. Is it because he can draw a lot of viewers? Sure! Is it because a lot of his fights are fixed? I don’t know and can’t prove it. This fight does make me wonder a little bit though. We all know Tito won that fight. He didn’t get the decision though.

5) Patrick Cote vs. Ricardo Almeida – Almeida was definitely a lot closer to finishing the fight than Cote. Unfortunately, he gassed after the first round. Cote hurt Almeida with a shot at the end of the 2nd, but who cares? Almeida was the only guy close to finishing the fight. I don’t think Cote should’ve gotten the decision.

6) Thales Leitas vs. Nathan Marquart – Marquart was robbed of bad reffing by Herb Dean. For some reason, I don’t think the UFC likes Marquart. He’s a pretty good fighter, but not the best, but definitely, won that fight.

7) Quinton “Rampage” Jackson vs. Forrest Griffin – It wasn’t clear that Rampage won, but a lot of people think he did. You can read the article on Sherdog.com if it’s still there. Most people thought Rampage won, but he was dominated the 2nd round. I think that a lot of money was put on Rampage.

8) Chuck Liddell vs. Keith Jardine – this fight was close. I don’t know – tough to say. I’ll bet a lot of money was bet on Chuck though.

Maybe the UFC should incorporate another scoring system. Maybe it shouldn’t be as crazy as Matt Lindland’s how much damage the guy inflicted, but maybe they should have more judges – maybe the audience or something. It could skew things a lot though. It can’t really be the audience on TV either because they’re influenced too much by the commentators. I don’t know. Maybe I’m just crazy.

Takeaway from this: Don’t bet on MMA if you’re going to get pissed about these things. Probably not so much anymore, but MMA fighters used to get paid very little. There’s a good chance that they could get paid more to throw a fight than to win a fight. It’s well known that the Japanese promotions try to get people in on late notice to get them to go there and “lose”. Those don’t have to be for gambling reasons since there isn’t any casino gambling in Japan. Maybe I’m just paranoid. Maybe I just think too much. I hope I got you to think about this a little though. If this posting is the only reason why you’ve popped up on my blog, excellent! Please respond.

Thanks!

My picks for UFC 84 for May 24th.

Monday, April 21st, 2008

I thought maybe I put in the picks a little too late last time. This time, I’m taking all of the favorites.

Main Card Bouts:
-B.J. Penn (#7 Lightweight in the World)* vs. Sean Sherk

Uh … BJ. Only possible way for Sherk to win is if he can hold BJ down and ground and pound or lay and pray. BJ’s not easy to take down – even St. Pierre had trouble doing it and I don’t see it being easy for him. I don’t think Sherk can stand with BJ either. I do question BJ’s gas tank though. He’s had issues with it before, but should be in shape now. We don’t need to question Sherk’s gas tank. He can go for 25 minutes no problem as he’s done many times. I’d say that BJ dominates and wins by KO most likely. Sherk’s probably not an easy guy to submit because of his short neck. I think he can power out of any armbar as well.

-Lyoto Machida (#5 Light Heavyweight in the World)* vs. Tito Ortiz (#10 Light Heavyweight in the World)*

Machida. Tito can’t stand with him. Tito could be able to take him down and do the same as Sherk, GnP/LnP. I think that Machida will have his game with takedown defense and potshot Tito to victory.

-Keith Jardine (#6 Light Heavyweight in the World)* vs. Wanderlei Silva (#8 Light Heavyweight in the World)*

The only possible upset of the night that I see can happen is if Wanderlei has some issues with Keith Jardine’s reach. Jardine did a good job against Liddell and I’m thinking that Houston Alexander was a fluke now. That said, if we see a crazy aggressive Wandy, he might be able to get Jardine just like Alexander did.

Beats me for the next 2 … Silva/Gouveia? I haven’t seen their opponents, so I can’t say.

-Thiago Silva vs. Antonio Mendes

-Wilson Gouveia vs. Goran Reljic

Preliminary Bouts:

-Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou (#9 Light Heavyweight in the World)* vs. Kazuhiro Nakamura

Sokoudjou – he’s a judo fighter too. He’s also got KO power. I think he’ll take Nakamura by KO. Too bad Joe Silva doesn’t allow these guys to take out some of the TUF guys. They’d put on a clinic. Anyways, I think Nakamura will eventually get caught.

-Yoshiyuki Yoshida vs. Jon Koppenhaver

I like Koppenhaver, but have no clue who Yoshida is.

Don’t know about the rest of these guys either.

-Rousimar Palhares vs. Ivan Salaverry
-Shane Carwin vs. Christian Wellisch
-Dong-hyun Kim vs. Jason Tan
-Terry Etim vs. Robert Emerson

Awesome site for consensus sports picks!

Sunday, July 9th, 2006

http://www.wagerline.com – my first couple days of this was 9 for 9! the number has dropped off a bit, but still ahead … keep it rollin’!